MLB Playoff Odds III

The New York Yankees are the 2005 American League East Champions.

Today the Yankees beat the Red Sox 8 to 4, and the White Sox beat the Indians 4-3. One of the requirements for the “nightmare scenario” double one game playoff was the Indians taking exactly two out three against the White Sox this weekend. That game finished before the game at Fenway, so Joe Buck let us know that the winner of the Yankees-Red Sox game would wrap up a playoff spot, the Yankees spot being as division champs.

Here’s the updated chart:

96-66 94-68 99-63 93-69 BOS wins WC 1 1 1 0
96-66 94-68 98-64 94-68 1GP CLE@BOS 1 0.5 1 0.5
95-67 95-67 99-63 93-69 BOS wins WC 1 1 1 0
95-67 95-67 98-64 94-68 BOS wins WC 1 1 1 0
Out of 4: 4 3.5 4 0.5
Out of 100: 100.0 87.5 100.0 12.5

The Red Sox have an 87.5% of making the playoffs. The Indians have the remaining 12.5%. The Indians have a 25% of forcing the one game playoff with the Red Sox, and then a 50% chance of winning that game. The Red Sox are guaranteed to play beyond Sunday, because their worst-case scenario is the one game playoff against the Indians.

After today, the Red Sox still control their own destiny — if they win Sunday against the Yankees they earn the Wild Card, or if they drop the final game to the Yankees they still only need to win the one game playoff against the Indians. The Indians, on the other hand, need the Red Sox to lose, need to beat the White Sox, and then need to beat the Red Sox in Boston.

MLB Playoff Odds III